The markets got an unwelcome surprise this week when during its annual benchmark revision to its non-farm payroll numbers, the BLS announced that job growth was being revised downward by 818,000 jobs over the April 2023 to March 2024 timeframe. Prior to this, the BLS said that the economy gained 242,000 jobs per month over this period. Turns out, it was only 174,000.
The funny/sad part of this is that the markets didn’t even flinch on the news. Somehow, they were expecting the downward revision to be even worse. We’re apparently back to the point where “less bad” news is treated as good news and a reason to keep buying stocks.
Is The Jobs Number Even Worth Following Any More?
If you’re a regular follower of the monthly non-farm payroll report, you already know that downward revisions to previously released figures are a regular thing. In fact, it’d be more accurate to call it a constant thing.
Over the past year and a half, the monthly non-farm payroll number has been revised upward only three times from its initial release to its final print. Three times in 18 reports. The other 15 times it’s been revised downward. And not just by a little bit either. By a fairly significant margin.
I know there’s a lot of numbers here and it’s not exactly easy reading, so let me point out a few things that stood out to me.
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